Thank goodness we are out of CEX.io shares at the moment. Like, 2 weeks ago we went all in because it looked like a good idea. We missed our window, and since then have been trying to mine our way out/ wait for the right moment. This afternoon, we finally got out just before prices fell, basically breaking even plus like 100$. It could have been uuuugly. But I am happy to be sitting on bitcoin again, regardless of how things have been lately. I didn’t make a post after correction part 2 last week I don’t think, but we will see how things go. If we are lucky there will be no more bad news for a while. But honestly, with a lot of new people taking bitcoin seriously comes a lot of risk that some of these people will be unfriendly to the idea. I think a lot of smart money has already decided it’s better to be on the side of bitcoin, but really, nobody knows where all this is actually going. My best case scenario is that the next few months are quiet, with new merchants and services catching on. We already have news that overstock.com is planning to take bitcoin, and there are rumors about a few other big deal companies such as newegg.
In my scenario, these would hit around June, just as 28nm is happening and we would get another parabolic rise. Maybe by then, China will have figured out how they are going to handle the regulations and still do business and their demand will come back on. And by next November when the halving is scheduled, there will be lots of demand to drive the price to proportionate highs. Because only good news is not really realistic, I would also like to see regulation debated and maybe some kind of consensus that is not exactly what bitcoiners want, but also leaves leeway for growth of 3rd party and new exchanges. Also, I would like to see some of these old big fish slowly and gently letting some of their bitcoins into exchanges. 210k BTC moving today is a tiny bit scary, but who wouldn’t want a few million dollars in cash just to be safe.
I am prepared for bitcoin to fall again, and I will stay the course if it does, but by the end of 2014 I would like to see 2k per bitcoin.
I just had a strange thought. Bitcoins are mined by using processor time which consumes energy. The amount of energy required to mine a bitcoin increases over time, as does Moore’s law. If you were able to match the growth of the amount of processor time required to mine a bitcoin to the growth of Moore’s law, you could use Bitcoin as a consistant unit of energy such as kw/h. Either way, Bitcoin represents a certain amount of energy required to harvest it.
Yes! I have a lot of feelings about this, and also how it applies to the network.
Why is everyone so obsessed with Bitcoin being a currency? I feel like 1. It doesn’t matter what we call it at some point if it is used to buy and sell things. 2. It is not like other currencies, so if you want a narrow definition of currency, fine, rule it out, but what you call it isn’t really relevant to how it works. 3. Your visa balance isn’t a currency either strictly speaking. 4. It doesn’t need to be used in the same way as traditional currencies in order to be valid either.
It’s like we need a new job in society, technological taxonomists, to strictly define new technology and draw family trees for how it all fits together. Can we call it a crypto-currency and be done with it? Can we say it works like both a currency and a commodity and different governing bodies use different rules depending on their inclination?
Honestly, if this was a debate about how it should be regulated, I would be fine with it, but it’s not. As far as I can tell this is just like people who are against gay marriage because changing the way they understand the concept of marriage just blows their minds, so it’s the world that has to be confused, not them. Because Bitcoin doesn’t recall to you the metallic sensuality of Scrooge McDuck swimming in his pool of gold coins, doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is a scam or that it has no value. When you hear “Bitcoin is not a currency”, that in no way debunks the premise that Bitcoin is a good idea or that it solves problems in the way we currently use money.
Protip: People make words to better understand and talk about the world. They are maps for ideas, not the ideas themselves. If you find a word (or a map), that doesn’t correspond to the reality of the idea you are facing, it is likely an outdated map, not the world on the brink of flying apart into chaos and meaninglesness. Calm down. Take the lay of the land and when you find a newer map that corresponds better, pick one up.
Roller coaster time again. I don’t really like this part, but I would be more stressed if the circumstances were not so interesting. That we first covered this territory just a few months ago doesn’t hurt either. What will happen next though, both here and in China? What will be the next country to catch on? Will it be small incrimental changes, or parabolic rises like we have seen before?
I was trying to decide whether to sell today, but I decided to hold instead. It might be nice to have some cash for the meantime, but we are hedged pretty well and normal expenses should be ok for a while.
I think prices won’t see 1000 again for a few months, but if the us govt did want to crush BTC this would be the time. I don’t think they do though. Regardless they can’t put the crypto cat back in the bag. I think unless there is more unforseen news, the bottom will be somewhere around 400. That is my guess. With China 60% of bitcoin, and they can still deal in them, just not buy them with yuan. So 40-50% drop seems rational that would be around 500 with the added low of panic sellers in a crash. I mean, if you think there was a bubble at 1000 you might go lower, but that is my guess.
And what will happen to difficulty? What about alts? It is very exciting, but then there is also that sinking feeling. Guess it’s just part of the game.
The recent correction didn’t make much sense to me until I heard that a Hong Kong based exchange went out of business and took everyone’s bitcoins. That is the kind of thing that panics people and makes them think they aren’t cut out for investing or the bitcoin community or whatever. The news from the Chinese govt in my opinion is actually positive, and the Baidu thing doesn’t really seem like a big deal. But all combined I can see how we got a big enough drop to trigger panic sales. I guess probably it is just as well to stick a pin in the market and let it deflated a bit. For one thing, lower prices make it more approachable to new people. Also, we once again prove that nobody wants to sell out for less than 500$ and even then only when in a stampede mentality.
I feel smart because I had money to spend on bitcoin and due to a series of coincidences, I had it sitting in my account ready to go at the right time and I got in pretty close to the bottom.
Meanwhile, we are gpu mining LTC to keep the house warm, which is going well dispite the hazards of trying to coordinate with tech guys and buy gear in a tight market. The hashing shares trading has been going ok too although that is also fraught with peril. Luckily my husband is a serious trooper and doesn’t give up no matter what. I wish I was more helpful with what he is doing, although I know support functions are vital too.
All in all I am really pleased with the crypto scene these days despite prices falling.